The Cheltenham festival starts with a roar on Tuesday the 13th of March until Friday the 16th of March. The time for getting the early value is now upon us with some cracking priced bets for the knowledgable punter.
Cheltenham betting – Ones to watch
We’ve cast our considered eye over the horses to keep an eye on and the bookies to back them with. For us they’ve got to be NRNB (None runner no bet) and a few of them now are.
Supreme novice hurdle
Until last year the Supreme followed a very similar trend with the favourite or second favourite taking the win in 4 consecutive years. Last year Labaik took the win from a 25/1 SP which stunned Cheltenham – apart from the few who’d backed it.
There’s some interesting trends to consider on this race, in the last 16 races all sixteen winners had the following statistics going into the race.
- They had run already that season, a minimum of 2 races and a maximum of 7 races.
- They had all previously been winners when racing over hurdles – No first time winners.
And 15 of the 16 had the following statistics going into the race
- They had all won at least 2 times over hurdles previously, to a maximum of 4 times.
- Had run at least 1 class 2 race
- In their last race they had no more than 11 other runners
With this information we can start to get a picture of what the winning horses previous form will look like – as long as this one goes on form. We then start to look at the market for this race and have identified the following horse as our ante post pick for day one.
The early favourite is the Willie Mullins trained getabird who, at the time of writing, is a standout 9/4 to win the race. With 5 straight wins, including winning 9 lengths clear last time out, its easy to see why. I’m not convinced of the value at those odds though so have looked further down the field to see where the real early value lies.
My selection – If the cap fits 7/1
A cracking horse with a decent record including 5 wins in 6 career races and the last 3 straight wins. Its a horse that sees to track the leaders and then power home when shaken up by Noal Fehily.
Last time out it won in a feild of 11 which matches the form criteria for the race and has had multiple wins. It’s also had 3 races this season which also hits our criteria market.
It’s worth backing this with a NRNB cover as there is a chance this one could change races as its also entered into the Ballymore novices hurdle on the Wednesday. You can also get a free bet on this horse ahead of the Cheltenham festival with some bookies – click here for Cheltenham Festival free bets.
The Gold Cup takes place on Friday and for me is the pinnacle race of the festival. The Friday is always a jubilant atmosphere if your at the course.
Here’s the stats for us to consider
16 out of 16 horses –
- Under 10 years old
- Had been ridden by the same jockey on at least 2 previous occasions
- Had an SP of less then 9/1
- Had their last race at a different course (odd stat)
- Had run at least once in the season
My Selection – Disko 19/1
This is a great ante post for an each way bet. Disko has won in their last 2 races and was previously 3rd after a small mistake at Cheltenham when beaten by Conygee. Has recently beaten Our Duke who is also in this race but at lower odds of 10/1.
Disko will need a good clear run in order to get the win but 1/5 odds on a top 3 would do us nicely.
Follow us on Twitter (@racing_apps) for more tips and news ahead of the Cheltenham Festival.